Stream of Consciousness Week 23rd March 2020

Stream of conciousness and other personal thoughts garnered throughout the week. These thoughts are unrefined, unquantified, unverified, and raw. Any of these may be either be edited, deleted or otherwise spawn out into it’s own separate post…

  • Wouldn’t be surprised to learn that CoViD-19 had spread around the world earlier than what most believe and so far has commonly been reported.
  • Microsoft Cloud skills challenge contest that was held at work upon further inquisition turned to be an almost total farce. Someone gamed the game (outside of what was clearly the intended spirit of the game) and people cried foul. The organizers eventually cracked and the rules of engagement were changed well after the Challenge had commenced and were not even properly communicated. This is perhaps the first time in 17 years of working in the company that I’ve ever sent off an Email internally that could be described in anyway as “heated” (expressing disappointment but composed in the most civil, considerate and respectful way as I could).

Other CoVid-19 thoughts have been rolled up into their own post.

 

Stream of Consciousness Week 23rd March 2020

Mass Clinical Trial of potential treatments against CoVid-19

Clinical trials of potential candidates for CoVid-19 treatments are now currently underway to see if any of the below mentioned drug combinations offer any efficacy in slowing down or reducing the effect of CoVid-19 on patients.

Science Mag: WHO launches global mega trial of the four most promising treatments

Potential treatment candidates include…

  • Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine
  • Remdesivir
  • Ritonavir/lopinavir
  • Ritonavir/lopinavir + interferon beta

I’d expect there will be other potential treatments in the pipeline coming online to be ready for clinical trials.

In my own non-professional opinion, if any of these clinical trials are actually successful, the earliest we could perhaps see these treatments becoming mainstream is may be 5-9 months. I would currently pick in reality this could be over a year, but again I reiterate this is a stab in the dark prediction.

CoVid19 is indeed a very serious series of viruses and firm + swift proactive steps need to be taken, particularly with protecting the most vulnerable in our community (e.g The elderly, those who are immunocompromised and those with serious pre-existing medical conditions). At the same time, I still assert that I see a totally needless, unhelpful and counter-productive level of group think, panic and herd mentality that is being perpetuated in an epic unprecedented feedback loop across social media channels and the majority of the Mainstream media / Mass media outlets globally.

Mass Clinical Trial of potential treatments against CoVid-19

Stream of Consciousness Week 9th March 2020

Stream of conciousness and other personal thoughts garnered throughout the week. These thoughts are unrefined, unquantified, unverified, and raw. Any of these may get spawned out into its own separate post or removed entirely…

  • Phone Cameras are improving quite substantially. I am often asked by others what Camera I have used to take the photos I have posted to NUI.NZ and express surprised that the majority of them have been taken on a phone.
  • One area that phone cameras have not caught up yet is with Telephoto. A lot of hybrid zoom technology still produces very rough images. Recommended you still carry a dedicated travel zoom for these situations.
  • 1/2.3 inch sensors in dedicated cameras are like the 1366×768 screen resolutions in laptops. Plentiful in the market but for me are a bit of a turn off.
  • A (possible) start of a sideways secular market was detected around the middle of 2019 and was judged to have started around the beginning of 2018
  • The markets are now approximately 20-25% off of their peak. Probably expect further falls in the coming week (Written 10th March 2020 NZDT)
  • An issue of trying to mix cyclists and cars on Auckland’s road network is that the presence of cyclists tend to disrupt traffic flow due to the roads not being made to accommodate cycling activities. On a more extreme case. Cyclists tend to use the pedestrian/cyclist crossing on Highbrook Drive. While they are absolutely within their right to do so, it does cause vehicles to have to brake (brake wear and tear) and additional fuel use (due to needing to accelerate back up to speed)
Stream of Consciousness Week 9th March 2020

I fear the panic more than the virus itself

In confession, I currently feel greater anxiety towards the panic and public reaction over the COVID-19 virus more than the virus itself. This sentiment of mine is no doubt subject to change however as events unfold.

Yes, Take positive proactive steps to safe guard yourself and your community, friends and family including such precautions like proper and thorough hand washing, staying away from others if you’re sick. But please don’t be an idiot and fan the fear around social media or hoard stuff like toilet paper.

That said, yes, I believe the New Zealand government could be doing more to safe guard our borders and taking stricter quarantine measures at our major ports, at least to slow any spread down and minimize overloading our Health services (by way of helping to “Flatten the Curve”).

I fear the panic more than the virus itself

Temporary Snapshot 10 March 2020

Global Check Snapshot. (Temporary, shoot from the hip post)

  • Panic buying on food (e.g Canned food) being triggered at some near point in the future is sizeable.
  • Chance of at least one COVID-19 community spread (unknown origin, non-familial) is considered high which could potentially trigger the result above.
  • Markets likely to tank further over the near term. Three possible scenarios.
    • Either a classic crash scenario with bull trap (as drawn in a prior post) forming a V recovery or
    • A 1987 style crash, where there is close to 20% drops in value on the indices, then a stabilization with one to three years to get back to where it was.
    • Third case is Great Depression II
    • Or a fourth case not yet thought about. We’re looking in the rear vision mirror for goodness’s sake.
  • Global panic is I feel doing more damage to people’s livelihood in general than the virus It self. But this is certainly debatable and my opinion is more than ever subject to change on this point. Yes, indeed, most certainly take precautions such as thoroughly washing hands, staying away from others if you are sick.
  • Panic is likely to induce more (perhaps needless) panic.
  • Changed Kiwi Saver over from Growth to conservative late February. Timing was a complete fluke and is not down to any ability on my part. I have taken a bath on other investments. The Crash has unfolded a lot quicker than anticipated.
  • While there is a saying, “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” – The market I feel is not yet cheap enough to resume dollar cost averaging. I would expect at least a 40-60% drop from the top of the market and a clear bottoming pattern to emerge before resuming any such investment activities.
  • I am growing concern regarding the safety of deposits in bank accounts and I need to get schooled up as to what guarantees (if any) are still available on bank deposits.

 

Temporary Snapshot 10 March 2020

.NZ Domain Yearly registration prices are to rise.

The .nz Domain prices are to rise after InternetNZ announces wholesale price increases. Claim is that registrations are falling. Monthly Registration statistics can be found here… https://docs.internetnz.nz/reports/

I believe a lot of the more recent new domain registrations were speculative after the release of the direct second level registrations under .nz and feel that may be it’s just a gradual decline back to the mean.

Increasing prices in my view will no doubt accelerate the so-called decline. I plan to have a look into their financials when I get a chance. (I don’t expect to find any irregularities – though worth checking for my own edification)

.NZ Domain Yearly registration prices are to rise.

Stream of Consciousness Week 2nd March 2020

Stream of conciousness and other personal thoughts garnered throughout the week. These thoughts are unrefined, unquantified, unverified, and raw. Any of these may be either be edited, deleted or otherwise spawn out into it’s separate post….

  • Looking ahead for 2020. My travels both internally and internationally will probably be substantially less, probably more so as a result of the reaction to the COVID-19 outbreak. Less photo albums will be posted than usual this year.
  • The above being said, Still in the calendar…
    • A trip to Arrowtown Autumn Festival + More South Island Hiking (April),
      Update 2020-03-22: CANCELLED by the airline.
    • A possible trip to Tasmania (May),
      Update 2020-03-22: CANCELLED
    • A trip to Kamchatka in Russia (July)… If Kamchatka doesn’t pan out, will change plans and just tour around Japan.
      Update 2020-03-22: In jeopardy
  • Locally (in Auckland), still planning to attend this coming weekend…
    • Pasifika
    • Kumeu Show
  • Yes, I’ve taken a bit of a bath on some of my other holdings (as anticipated in an earlier post penned before all this happened) however I am not too worried given such financial calamities have happened many times before and the market to date has managed to bounce back. Should the pull back continue, particularly if the stock market halves in value, it will be an opportunity to bolster my long term portfolio with good strong companies that have good ‘moats’ for bargain-basement prices.
  • Kind of really struggling to connect the dots regarding the hoarding of Toilet Paper. Doesn’t matter, Just slowly accumulating Cans of food by popping an extra handful in my cart every grocery shop.
  • The NZ Herald as a medium / Division of NZME / brand, needs to be taken out back and put out of it’s misery. I feel they have been blatantly irresponsible in some of their editing recently. Why are people panic buying Toilet paper when there are plenty of copies of the NZ herald to go around?
Stream of Consciousness Week 2nd March 2020

Drowning does NOT look like drowning

An interactive website I found that provides information on recognising signs of drowning in a child along with the opportunity to practice recognising these signs.

URL: http://spotthedrowningchild.com/

The key take away here is that… Drowning does NOT look like drowning

Quoted from the site… “Except in rare circumstances, drowning people are physiologically unable to call out for help. The respiratory system was designed for breathing. Speech is the secondary or overlaid function. Breathing must be fulfilled, before speech occurs.”

Recognise Drowning in a pool

The Youtube videos utilized on the site are from the Lifeguard Rescue (Channel)

Drowning does NOT look like drowning

Recommend Abolishing the National Lottery

I have to admit, the oft used slogans in Lotto NZ’s marketing… “Got to be in to win” and “Imagine…” troubles me quite intensely, in so much that I feel it traps the more vulnerable people into a dopamine driven false sense of hope and psychological impression that the odds of winning the big one is magnitudes larger than either logic or statistics could ever justify.

It is also I feel serves as another function to distract quite a few people away from their meagre lives and contributing to drawing public attention away from the issues that really need attention and debate. (e.g The Value of Working, Provision of pathways and opportunities to progress and contribute meaningfully to the community, Ending the over-commoditization and downright pitiful rampant speculation on housing, etc)

People argue that Lottery organizations are charities and they give back to the community by way of grants as merely an excuse to keep these schemes around, however I firmly feel the impact (Addictions, distractions) outweighs any community good. Like the Pokie machines (“One arm bandits” I call them), the poor and the ones who can least afford to engage in such pursuits, seem to be the biggest patrons of them.

There I’ve said it… I strongly felt that I needed to at least get this off of my chest.

Recommend Abolishing the National Lottery